Not really, but it depends on who you talk to.
The cost of the physical geothermal heat pump is pretty much on par with a top-of-the-line modulating gas furnace with air conditioning. It is also slightly LESS expensive than the equipment cost of an air source heat pump. YES, I said LESS expensive!
Where Geothermal tends to get knocked for being priced out of the market, is on the cost of the energy source - the infamous 'loop'.
The loop is the most critical part of the geothermal system. It is the energy source! It is the physical device that extracts the heat energy from the ground and makes it accessible to the Geothermal Heat Pump to be injected into your house. Yes - there is a cost to it, but it is not prohibitive.
Look at it this way. With a gas furnace, you pay to have the gas delivered to your house . . . IN PERPETUITY . . . FOREVER! In addition, you have to pay for the gas you consume . . . IN PERPETUITY . . . FOREVER! As the price of gas goes up (and it does . . . and will IN PERPETUITY AND FOREVER), the operating cost also increases.
When you install a loop, you do so only once. There are NO ongoing costs for the operation of, or maintenance of the loop. It will last for generations - for the life of your house and beyond. NOTHING is consumed or used up. Fluid is circulated - that's all! The heat energy that you extract from the ground is FREE! You own the land. You own the loop. You own the energy . . . IN PERPETUITY . . . FOREVER!
When you try to compare say, the cost of a Natural Gas furnace installation with a Geothermal Heat Pump, Geothermal will cost a bit more initially (due to the cost of the loop), but the savings in operating costs will soon outperform Gas! Consider the 'cost' of the loop as a prepayment on your future energy.
In reality, the cost of a loop for a standard 3-ton system (which is adequate for a well-insulated 1,500 square foot home) is about $6,000 to $8,000 for a horizontal loop, and about $12,000 to $18,000 for a vertical loop (drilled wells). The type of loop depends on how much land you have for installation. If you are located in an urban setting with a typical 'lot' that is, say 40 feet by 100 feet, then you'll need a vertical loop system. If you have more land area for a horizontal loop (and have at least 5 feet of depth before hitting bedrock), then a horizontal loop will be a great option.
Now, if you are located in an Urban area that is serviced by Natural gas, you are unlikely to consider Geothermal TODAY because the cost of natural gas is relatively low. HOWEVER, the cost of Natural Gas is increasing at a staggering rate. As of January 2023, in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Enbridge Gas increased their natural gas prices from 10 cents to 23 cents per cubic meter in two years! As a commodity with a depleting supply, Natural Gas will only cost more as the years go on.